Whaddya know, Congressional Republicans did not cave on the border!—as I feared as late as last week. So Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer failed to get a vote on funding the war in Ukraine before the upper chamber recessed for Christmas because Republicans stuck to their pledge to tie Ukraine to border security. The Democrats’ mulishness on the border crisis is stupid, at least short term. If they would simply agree with the GOP, they could possibly dissipate immigration’s potency in next year’s general election. But the party’s hard-Left and the Treason Lobby won’t allow it. They would rather have Open Borders than win an election. This dynamic may ensure no deal is ever reached.
Republicans played this one correctly. They’re holding Ukraine funding hostage with solid, reasonable, border security proposals. Their opening pitch insisted on a border wall, the reinstatement of Remain in Mexico, reforming abused asylum policies that allow illegal aliens to stay here and avoid deportation, and curbs on the Biden Regime’s power to grant parole. Remarkably, Republican negotiators—even though mostly composed of squishes such as Oklahoma’s James Lankford and North Carolina’s Thom Tillis—stuck to these demands.
While lawmakers in DC are working on a deal that will include border security funding this is the current scene at the border in Eagle Pass , thousands of migrants continue to pour in , here we see migrants going over the shipping containers placed by Texas national guard… pic.twitter.com/U9GyGKhQqA
— Jorge Ventura Media (@VenturaReport) December 17, 2023
Congressional Democrats were starting to relent. In previous weeks, they demanded an Amnesty in return for some border security. But Republican negotiators refused. The only thing they offered was Ukraine funding, nothing to satisfy Leftist desires on immigration.
It now appears that Democrats have dropped the Amnesty demand. Recent negotiations have instead argued about limits to Biden’s parole power. The president has abused this authority to offer “legal” pathways for many thousands of illegals to enter the U.S. He’s tried to expand it in recent months to allow in even more “migrants.” Indeed, he’s brazenly breaking the law. Still, Democrats insist on siding with Biden—the Great Replacement must go on [Senators eye border deal framework as early as Sunday, though parole policy remains sticking point, by Camilo Montoya-Galvez, CBS, December 15, 2023].
Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), Democrat whom the feds have indicted on corruption charges, says curbing parole will somehow increase illegal immigration:
Humanitarian parole allows the United States to be in the driver’s seat, determining which individuals can obtain protection in the United States.
It also serves our national security interests by sending a clear message: if you stand with us, if you fight for freedom, and there comes a life-and-death moment, we will provide you with refuge.
Sen. Menendez Delivers Remarks on the Senate Floor Against Republican Efforts to Attach Harmful Immigration Policies to the Supplemental Aid Package, Menendez.senate.gov December 6, 2023
Those involved in the negotiations say talks are progressing, but apparently neither side is close to being satisfied. And Texas’ John Cornyn, a certified squish on immigration, warned that Schumer might try to do a backroom deal on immigration that does little to secure the border. Cornyn assured reporters that any attempt to do something like that would fail [John Cornyn dubious of current immigration talks, by David Cohen, Politico, December 17, 2023].
For fear of that shady deal, many Republicans want to open the negotiations to the rest of their caucus. Fifteen GOP senators have demanded that the party leadership schedule a conference meeting to address their concerns. Leadership agreed to a meeting in January. The letter was a message to negotiators: The caucus must approve of any deal; nothing will happen behind their backs [Republican Senators Stiff-Arm Democratic Rush for Border Deal, by Neil Munro, Breitbart, December 18, 2023].
Republicans are open to a deal. They just insist it must be a serious solution to the border crisis.
But a sizable number of Democrats want no deal at all. They claim any measures to beef up the border betray their base.
“My message to [the president] is clear: We cannot cave to Republicans’ demands for ineffective and cruel Trump-era immigration policies as a ‘price to be paid’ for aid to our allies,” exhorted California Sen. Alex Padilla, a Hispanic [Biden faces battle with Democratic base over Israel, Ukraine, border, by Alexander Bolton, The Hill, December 18, 2023].
“I just think it’s unfortunate that we constantly do this, where we buy into and try to out-Republican Republicans,” fretted Washington Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the Indian immigrant leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. “It’s never worked. The enforcement-only strategy does not work” [Biden’s Border Negotiations Mark Seismic Shift on Immigration Politics, by Zolan Kanno-Youngs, New York Times, December 16, 2023]. And “throwing immigrants under the bus—which I’ve seen happen over and over again—is not a good election strategy,” she averred.
These arguments obviously weigh heavily with Biden. Democrats previously stuck to the demand for Amnesty to please Progressives, but Republican obstinance forced them to relent. Now Democrats must decide how little to give up to win Republican approval. Forcing the GOP to concede is no longer an option.
Perhaps a better tactic for Democrats: accepting a Republican deal and then claiming credit for it. Americans are outraged by Biden’s Great Replacement invasion and want it stopped. If Americans continue to see thousands of illegals pouring into the country and Biden does nothing, the result could be an electoral disaster for him and the Democrats [Biden approval on immigration drops 8 points since last month: poll, by Julia Mueller, The Hill, December 18, 2023].
Immigration may well cost Biden the election. Securing the border could defang this issue enough. Republican pols, unfortunately, won’t focus on immigration if 200,000-plus illegals are no longer streaming across the border every month. If the number returns to levels below 100,000 and most of those apprehended are quickly deported, the invasion loses some of its immediacy. And if the numbers did drop, the Leftist Main Stream Media would give Biden the credit.
Biden could tell Democrats to accept the Republican offer whenever he wants. But for two reasons he (or his handlers) won’t make that smart move—even though refusing to budge jeopardizes his re-election.
As Vivek Ramaswamy said at the last GOP primary debate: “The Great Replacement theory is not some grand, right-wing conspiracy theory but a basic statement of the Democratic Party’s platform.”
Accelerating the Great Replacement supersedes short-term political concerns.
Biden and his cronies know the numbers at the border are too high. They want a manageable migrant flow. More than 200,000 encounters monthly won’t sell to the public. They’re looking for any measure to change the headlines.
Biden may decide it’s better for his political career to accept what Republicans want. It would be a serious win for Republicans if the president backs down.
But he will have hell to pay within his own party.
That said, the irate Progressives will have nowhere to go. They’re not going to vote for Trump or pick a Third-Party candidate who may cost Biden the election.
So in these negotiations, Democrats face a simple choice: Do they favor the Great Replacement or their electoral chances more?
My take: It’s a smart bet to wager on the first option: Biden capitulates. Great Replacement über alles!
Washington Watcher II [Email him] is an anonymous DC insider.
