The U.S. may be headed for a double-dip recession. Private employers added 71,000 jobs in July. That's above June's 31,000 figure, but short of the consensus forecast that 90,000 private sector jobs would be added in July.
Over all, the economy lost 131,000 jobs in July—more than expected. But many of those losses came as federal Census Bureau workers left their temporary posts.
The government also sharply revised the overall June number, saying the economy lost 221,000 jobs instead of 125,000.
The "other" labor survey, of households rather than businesses, was even more downbeat. It reported a July job loss of 159,000.
The carnage prompted Allen Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics, to hypothesize that "Businesses just don't want to hire. Workers are too costly and it's very easy to substitute technology for labor." [Jobs Report Shows Private Sector Still Wary of Hiring, by Motoko Rich, New York Times, August 6, 2010]
Well, yes, some of the employment malaise is surely the result of computers, equipment, and other business capital displacing labor in the workplace.
But a more insidious kind of substitution,—low wage foreign labor for native workers—is also apparent, but never mentioned by Establishment economists. Here are the relevant data points for the month:
Total July employment: down 159,000 (-0.11 percent)
Hispanic employment: up 133,000 (+0.67 percent)
Non-Hispanic employment: down 292,000 (-0.24 percent)
While the national unemployment rate remained unchanged, at 9.5 percent, foreign-born labor, as proxied by Hispanic workers, managed to buck the trend:
|
Unemployment rates (%) |
|||
|
June 2010 |
July 2010 |
Change, June-July |
|
|
White |
8.6 |
8.6 |
0.0 |
|
Black |
15.4 |
15.6 |
+0.2 |
|
Asian |
7.7 |
8.2 |
+0.5 |
|
Hispanic |
12.4 |
12.1 |
-0.3 |
|
BLS figures, PDF,Summary Table A. |
|||
As a result, our measure of native labor displacement, the VDARE.COM American Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI), rose a hefty 1 percent in July, to a record 126.8:
VDAWDI is calculated like this:
For every 100.0 Hispanics employed in January 2001 there were 124.0 in July 2010
For every 100.0 non-Hispanics employed in January 2001 there were 97.8 in July 2010
July's VDAWDI equals 126.8 (=100 X 124.0/97.8)
Of course, Hispanic employment is an imperfect proxy for our primary interest: foreign-born employment and its implications for job prospects of native-born workers.
In recent months, the jobs report has presented data on foreign- and native-born workers, their working-age populations, employment, unemployment rates, etc.
The data are not seasonally adjusted, making month to month comparisons tricky. But we can compare this July with last July:
|
Employment Status by Nativity, July 2009-July 2010 |
||||
|
(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) |
||||
|
|
July-09 |
July-10 |
Change |
% Change |
|
|
Foreign born, 16 years and older |
|||
|
Civilian population |
35,216 |
36,207 |
991 |
2.8% |
|
Civilian labor force |
24,289 |
24,586 |
297 |
1.2% |
|
Employed |
21,856 |
22,249 |
393 |
1.8% |
|
Unemployed |
2,433 |
2,337 |
-96 |
-3.9% |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
10.0 |
9.5 |
-0.5 |
-5.0% |
|
Not in labor force |
10,926 |
11,621 |
695 |
6.4% |
|
|
Native born, 16 years and older |
|||
|
Civilian population |
200,654 |
201,683 |
1,029 |
0.5% |
|
Civilian labor force |
131,966 |
130,684 |
-1,282 |
-1.0% |
|
Employed |
119,199 |
117,884 |
-1,315 |
-1.1% |
|
Unemployed |
12,767 |
12,800 |
33 |
0.3% |
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
9.7 |
9.8 |
0.1 |
1.0% |
|
Not in labor force |
68,688 |
70,999 |
2,311 |
3.4% |
|
Data source: BLS, "The Employment Situation—July 2010," August 6, 2010. Table A-7. PDF |
||||
In other words, over the past 12 months:
Bottom line: The sharp bifurcation between foreign and native-born employment trends hinted at in the monthly figures is even more evident—and explicit—in the longer term.
Immigrants are displacing native-born Americans.
The only answer: an immigration moratorium—now.
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.
