Non-farm employment rose by 163,000 in July, nearly three-times the (downwardly revised) 64,000 June figure—and the highest monthly gain since February. Nothing to write home about, yet enough for some mainstream media pundits to proclaim a “brighter tone” and evidence that the “long slog upward from the depths of recession” was firmly in place.
Rarely have such headlines misstated reality more.
The “other” employment survey, of households rather than business establishments, reported a 195,000 decline in employment for July—the largest monthly reduction since June 2011.
More importantly, our analysis of household job data by reveals that native-born Americans were the only group to lose jobs last month. In July:
The New VDARE.com American Worker Displacement Index (NVDAWDI) tracks the disparate native-born and foreign-born employment trends since January 2009—Barack Obama’s first month in office:
Native-born employment growth is the black line, immigrant employment growth is in pink, and NVAWDI—the ratio of immigrant to native-born job growth—is yellow.
To calculate NVDAWDI we set both native-born and immigrant employment in January 2009 at 100.0. The immigrant employment index (pink line) rose from 100.0 in January 2009 to 106.6 in July 2012, while the index of native-born employment fell from 100.0 to 98.8.
The July NVAWDI was a record 107.8 (100 times 106.6 divided by 98.8.)
In January 2009 native-born workers held 84.8% of all U.S. jobs. In July 2012 the native share slipped to 83.8%—a seemingly modest loss until you apply that one percent drop to the 142 million plus individuals working in the U.S.
From January 2009 to July 2012:
Native-born jobs losses since Mr. Obama took office are the mirror image of immigrant job gains over that period. One to one displacement of native-born Americans by new immigrant workers is highly likely.
American worker displacement is confirmed by comparing the seasonally unadjusted figures for June 2012 with June 2011:
Employment Status by Nativity, July 2011-July 2012 (numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) | ||||
| Jul-11 | Jul-12 | Change | % Change |
Foreign born, 16 years and older | ||||
Civilian population | 36,576 | 37,627 | 1,051 | 2.9% |
Civilian labor force | 24,516 | 25,180 | 664 | 2.7% |
Participation rate (%) | 67.0% | 66.9% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
Employed | 22,264 | 23,211 | 947 | 4.3% |
Employment/population % | 60.9% | 61.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
Unemployed | 2,252 | 1,970 | -282 | -12.5% |
Unemployment rate (%) | 9.2% | 7.8% | -1.4% | -15.2% |
Not in labor force | 12,060 | 12,446 | 386 | 3.2% |
| Native born, 16 years and older | |||
Civilian population | 203,095 | 205,727 | 2,632 | 1.3% |
Civilian labor force | 130,296 | 131,346 | 1,050 | 0.8% |
Participation rate (%) | 64.2% | 63.8% | -0.4% | -0.6% |
Employed | 118,120 | 119,916 | 1,796 | 1.5% |
Employment/population % | 58.2% | 58.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
Unemployed | 12,176 | 11,430 | -746 | -6.1% |
Unemployment rate (%) | 9.3% | 8.7% | -0.6% | -6.5% |
Not in labor force | 72,799 | 74,381 | 1,582 | 2.2% |
Source: BLS, "The Employment Situation—July 2012," August 3, 2012. Table A-7. | ||||
Over the past 12 months:
The foreign-born population of working age continues to increase more than twice as fast as the comparable native-born population—2.9% versus 1.3% over the past 12 months.
Mitt Romney characterized the July figures as a “hammer blow to struggling middle-class families.” He must have had the native-born middle class—or what’s left of it—in mind.
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.
