[See also September Jobs Report Reveals America's Emerging Third World Economy By Paul Craig Roberts]
The economy lost 95,000 more jobs in September, as state and local governments downsized at a faster rate than the private sector expanded. The drop was much larger than the 8,000 decline expected by economists and far outstripped the 57,000 lost in August.
As is so often the case the "other" employment survey, of households rather than companies, paints a very different picture. That survey reported 141,000 positions added in September on the heels of a 290,000 job pop in August.
People who work for small businesses, "off the books", or who are self employed will show up in the Household Survey. That includes many illegal aliens.
V-DARE.COM's American Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI) rose to a record 127.0 in September as Hispanics gained jobs at nearly six times the rate of Non-Hispanics:
Total employment: up 141,000 (+0.10 percent)
Hispanic employment: up 68,000 (+0.34 percent)
Non-Hispanic employment: up 73,000 (+0.06 percent)
A few weeks ago Washington proclaimed that the Great Recession ended in June 2009. That call is based on GDP growth—which, although quite anemic, has been positive since then. For most of us ordinary Americans, however, GDP is an abstraction; employment is where it's at.
Since the onset of economic "recovery" in June 2009 total employment has declined. Some lucky folks have bucked the trend:
For every 1,000 Hispanics employed in June 2009 there were 1,024 employed in September 2010
For every 1,000 non-Hispanics employed in June 2009 there were 991 employed in September 2010
Economic recovery may indeed be a reality for Hispanics, who are employed in greater numbers today than in June 2009. But for non-Hispanics, economic recovery remains a rumor.
Of course, Hispanic employment is a proxy for our primary interest: the immigrant workforce and its role in displacement of native-born workers in the labor market.
When we developed VDAWDI, the federal government did not publish monthly data on immigrant employment. But in recent months the jobs report has begun to present data on foreign- and native-born workers, their working-age populations, employment, unemployment rates, etc.
|
Employment Status by Nativity, Sept. 2009-Sept. 2010 |
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|
(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) |
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|
|
Sep-09 |
Sep-10 |
Change |
% Change |
|
|
|
Foreign born, 16 years and older |
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|
Civilian population |
35,527 |
36,097 |
570 |
1.6% |
|
|
Civilian labor force |
24,189 |
24,488 |
299 |
1.2% |
|
|
Employed |
21,864 |
22,226 |
362 |
1.7% |
|
|
Unemployed |
2,325 |
2,262 |
-63 |
-2.7% |
|
|
Employees/population (%) |
61.5 |
61.6 |
0.1 |
0.2% |
|
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
9.6 |
9.2 |
-0.4 |
-4.2% |
|
|
|
Native born, 16 years and older |
||||
|
Civilian population |
200,796 |
202,225 |
1,429 |
0.7% |
|
|
Civilian labor force |
129,428 |
129,366 |
-62 |
0.0% |
|
|
Employed |
117,215 |
117,488 |
273 |
0.2% |
|
|
Unemployed |
12,213 |
11,878 |
-335 |
-2.7% |
|
|
Employees/population (%) |
58.4 |
58.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.5% |
|
|
Unemployment rate (%) |
9.4 |
9.2 |
-0.2 |
-2.1% |
|
|
Source: BLS, "The Employment Situation - August 2010,"October 8, 2010. Table A-7. PDF |
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Over the past 12 months:
Foreign-born employment rose by 1.7%, or more than eight-times native born job growth (0.2%)
The immigrant unemployment rate declined by 4.2%, while the rate for natives declined only 2.1%—half as much.
The share of the native-born working age population that is actually working declined for natives; the share of the immigrant working age population that is actually working rose.
Perhaps most indicative of future trends: the foreign born population 16 and over (i.e., of working age) rose by 1.6%, nearly double the 0.7% increase for natives.
Edwin S. Rubenstein (email him) is President of ESR Research Economic Consultants in Indianapolis.
