Iowa GOP caucus voters sent a stunning message: They want their candidate to be an immigration patriot—and that includes Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ second-place finish.
Donald Trump won big. He gained more than 50 percent support in the first primary contest, defeating his closest opponent, DeSantis, by nearly 30 points. The result supports Trump’s likely inevitability as the Republican nominee. But, apart from Vivek Ramaswamy, the other major contenders are staying in the race. The Establishment is still rallying around Nikki Haley, seeing her as the best alternative to Trump despite her third-place finish. Fatally, however, Haley can’t fulfill the base’s demand for immigration patriotism.
Immigration polls as the top concern among Iowa caucus goers. According to exit polls, 37 to 40 percent of Hawkeye Republicans said it was their top issue. It was selected more than the economy, abortion, and foreign policy. Only the economy ranked close [CNN Entrance Poll: Immigration Is Top Issue for Republican Iowa Caucus-Goers, by John Binder, Breitbart, January 15, 2024].
This comports with other data that show the GOP base cares deeply about immigration. Thus the New York Times profiled the new kind of Iowa white evangelical voter last week. He is more likely to not be a regular churchgoer and care about different issues. Instead of abortion, it is immigration that motivates the cultural evangelical to vote. Trump does very well among the voting bloc [Trump Is Connecting With a Different Type of Evangelical Voter, by Mark Boyer and Charles Homans, January 8, 2024].
Similarly, Republican voters nationwide say immigration is their top issue. An Economist/YouGov poll found that more than 75 percent of GOP voters say immigration is “very important.” When asked to pick their “most important” issue, immigration ranked ahead of the pack, with 24 percent of respondents selecting it [Immigration fear heats up Trump-Haley clash, dominates GOP ad spending, by Michael Scherer and Dylan Wells, The Washington Post, January 11, 2024]. A CBS poll found that 43 percent of conservatives say immigration is the most important issue [Americans increasingly see border as crisis, call for tougher measures, CBS News poll finds, by Fred Backus, CBS, January 7, 2024].
The GOP base isn’t just concerned with illegal immigration either. It’s anti-immigration in general. The same CBS poll found that 77 percent of conservative voters say recent immigration will hurt America in the long run. Republicans loved Trump’s comment that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” Forty-two percent of Iowa Republicans said the statement made them more likely to vote for Trump [’Poisoning the blood’ of US: Trump’s harsh words grow support among likely Iowa caucusgoers, by Galen Bacharier, Des Moines Register, December 17, 2023]. Seventy-two percent of national GOP voters said they agreed with the statement. When the statement was attributed to Trump, the figure jumped to 82 percent [Most Republicans agree with “poisoning the blood” language, by Kabir Khanna, CBS, January 14, 2024].
A Gallup poll last year provides further evidence of the GOP base’s immigration patriotism. Seventy-three percent of Republicans want immigration decreased. Forty-three percent say immigration in general is bad for America [Americans Still Value Immigration, but Have Concerns, by Lydia Saad, Gallup, July 13, 2023].
The top two vote earners in Iowa, Trump and DeSantis, appealed to this sentiment. Besides warning that immigrants will poison the blood of America, Trump offered a strong platform to curtail immigration.
And DeSantis actually offered a marginally better plan, albeit without as colorful of language. He would do all of those things to tackle illegal immigration, as well as end remittances to “migrant”-exporting countries and use lethal force against cartel smugglers at the border.
These two candidates combined earned more than 72 percent of the vote in Iowa.
Bottom line: Iowa Republicans made it clear that they want an immigration patriot to lead the party in 2024.
The two Indian candidates struggled in the overwhelmingly white state. They were perceived as too foreign, especially in the case of Vivek Ramaswamy. Still, Ramaswamy also pushed a message influenced by immigration patriotism, despite previously endorsing more immigration. He openly talked about anti-white racism and the Great Replacement. But his strange name and Hinduism marked him as an outsider [Vivek Ramaswamy campaign still facing voter questions on race and religion days before Iowa, by Nnamdi Egwuonwu, NBC, January 12, 2024].
Nikki Haley campaigned on a significantly different message than Trump and DeSantis. She presented herself as the one candidate in line with the donors’ Business First interests on immigration. But, significantly, she has tried to disguise herself as an immigration hawk, promising to increase deportations and end Birthright Citizenship [Haley, Pledging to ‘Close’ the Border, Is Asked: What About Migrants Who Are Already Here?, by Jazmine Ulloa, New York Times, November 4, 2023].
Nevertheless, she has also pledged to prioritize corporate needs when it comes to immigration. She says the number of immigrants America lets in every year should be determined by business interests. This would dramatically increase the number of immigrants into the country this year. She also insists that “the fabric of America is legal immigration” [Nikki Haley: Let CEOs Import Workers and Graduates They ‘Need,’ by Neil Munro, Breitbart, November 11, 2023].
And she condemns the explicit anti-immigration arguments of her rivals. She called Trump’s “poisoning the blood” comments “not helpful.” “I don’t think you have to have that rhetoric to [secure the border],” she told the Des Moines Register [Nikki Haley says Trump accusing immigrants of ‘poisoning the blood’ of US is ‘not helpful,’ by Stephen Gruber-Miller, Des Moines Register, December 20, 2023].
This is not new. Back in 2015, Haley criticized Republicans for calling illegal aliens “criminals.” “We don’t need to talk about them as criminals. They’re not. They’re families that want a better life,” she said. She even stood by those remarks at the last Republican presidential debate [DeSantis: ‘Do Not Trust Nikki Haley With Illegal Immigration,’ by Eliza Collins, Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2024].
Quite obviously that message did not appeal to Iowan Republicans. Despite the millions of dollars poured into her campaign, she finished third with a mere 19 percent of the vote.
However, Haley’s words have connected with donors and Democrats. Much of her support comes from people who aren’t even Republican. Many Democrats switched their registration to vote for her in the Iowa caucus. Nearly half of her voters said they would vote for Biden over Trump in 2024 [Poll: Nearly half of Nikki Haley’s Iowa backers say they’d vote for Biden over Trump, by Mark Murray and Alexandra Marquez, NBC, January 14, 2024].
This wasn’t enough to help her in Iowa, but paradoxically it might help her win in New Hampshire. The Granite State doesn’t bar non-Republicans from the primary. Haley hopes to win enough of them to give her an edge over Trump [Haley Looks to New Hampshire With a Focus on Independents, by Nick Corasaniti, New York Times, January 16, 2024].
The New Hampshire polls are much closer than they were in Iowa. The RealClearPolitics average gives Trump a 14-point advantage, which is significantly lower than his 30+ advantage heading into the Iowa caucuses. Haley could rally enough anti-Trump support to put her pro-immigration message ahead of the pack.
Nevertheless, it’s unlikely Haley will win the GOP nomination even if she wins New Hampshire. Republicans everywhere else are overwhelmingly behind Trump. They want a president who will put Americans first, close the borders, and reduce immigration. They see Trump as their best chance and know Haley won’t get the job done.
Immigration patriots should take heart from Iowa’s results. The Republican Party is moving in the right direction. It’s no longer a place where Nikki Haley types can win against the will of the Historic American Nation.
For all of Trump’s faults (and God knows etc.) he’s still the best immigration patriots have got for 2024.
And he’s running on a message immigration that patriots can approve. With the race effectively down to Trump vs. Haley, the choice for immigration patriots is obvious.
Washington Watcher II [Email him] is an anonymous DC insider.
