Re: Brenda Walker’s (pre-election) blog item Voter Fraud Looms In Close Electoral Races
From: An Anonymous Talk Radio Listener [Email him]
The Hill reports that “Democrats have won all 11 House races that were too close to call Nov. 4.”[House Dems' silver-lining wins by By Cameron Joseph, November 14, 2014]
In the absence of some kind of fraud, this defies the laws of probability.
Assuming a 50% chance of winning each seat (which is implied by "too close to call") I think the probability of one side winning them all would be .5x.5x.5 etc (11 .5's multiplied together), which yields 0.000488, or 1 chance in 2048.
This was noted by commenters at The Hill—two samples
Gary: “Of course the Dems won when given a little time they just kept finding uncounted votes. They just needed a few days to generate the needed votes to get to where they needed to be. Did anyone ever wonder why in a close race they always find uncounted Democratic votes and never Republican?”Eric: QUESTION OF THE DAY FOR HILL COMMENTS SECTION: Greatest vote fraudster/ballot stuff of all-time:
A) WA State two-term Gov. Christine Gregoire .
B) Minnesota's Al Franken.
C) Other I vote Gregoire. Franken was sly, not denying that. But finding a case load of ballots 17 days after the 5th recount in a backroom of the King County (Seattle) Courthouse, that was a classic.
