From the New York Times news section:

French Far Right Wins Big in First Round of Voting

A surprise decision by President Emmanuel Macron to hold a snap election appears to have backfired badly, giving the National Rally a decisive victory.
By Roger Cohen
Reporting from Paris

Published June 30, 2024

The National Rally party on Sunday won a crushing victory in the first round of voting for the French National Assembly, bringing its long-taboo brand of nationalist and anti-immigrant politics to the threshold of power for the first time.

Official results published by the Interior Ministry showed that the party and its allies won about 33 percent of the vote, far ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance party and its allies, which took about 20 percent to end in third place.

A coalition of left-wing parties, called the New Popular Front, won about 28 percent of the vote. Ranging from the moderate socialists to the far-left France Unbowed, the coalition was boosted by strong support among young people.

Turnout was high at about 67 percent, compared to 47.5 percent in the first round of the last parliamentary election in 2022, reflecting the importance accorded by voters to the snap election. To many it seemed that no less than the future of France was on the line with a far-right party long considered unelectable to high office because of its extreme views surging.

Over seventy candidates were elected outright on Sunday, but in most cases the election will be completed with a runoff on July 7 between the two or three leading parties in each constituency.

The results of the first round of voting do not typically provide a reliable projection of the number of parliamentary seats each party will secure. But the National Rally now looks very likely to be comfortably the largest force in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament where most power resides, although not necessarily with an absolute majority.

Philippe Lemoine figures the rightwing National Rally will fall just short of a majority in the second round of voting:

Okay, I'm going to bed, but I was provided the dataset I needed to run my model on the actual results and it puts the National Rally 10 to 30 seats short of a majority. Nobody else even comes close, so if that's correct, we're headed toward the maximum chaos scenario 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/hnPkRGcab6

— Philippe Lemoine (@phl43) July 1, 2024

The second round is in a week, on July 7th, and the Paris Olympics begin on July 26th.

[Comment at Unz.com]